Kentucky Derby 2024
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Derby
into Derby week okay so I felt good I was on record social media weeks ago fierceness can't lose right so I come up I got a problem cuz I came up today and I'm walking down the road cuz I want to see him in person yep and I come up down the road and there's this big nasty like headless Horseman's horse big towering thing right in my way and it's sier Leon it's a good looking horse so then I come I'm like well that was weird that was kind of a sign and I come out and I watch them all go by and fierceness as you've seen is not that impressive looking none of them are and then this big nasty Beast comes and it's C Leone man like don't don't you think that's a big n now You Can't Always Get duped into the big horse right like so I can think of some big horses that FEG fi Pegasus was the big one but Dortmund lost dortman looked a lot better than American y uh Mr frisky back in the day we all got duped into because he was this Rippling roed looking horse and he lost arazzi azzi was a tiny really arazzi was a tiny little French horse mystical mythical I knew Razzi was going to lose the Derby he had been injured and no rousi was not big so anyway so now I don't know what to I'm kind of conflicted about sier Leon but I until today.
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I was a big fierceness cold Exacta guy fierceness over catching Freedom okay but I think I'm going to now do a wheel bet with sier Leon on top so that's my question because I think a lot of people like myself where you if you look at the program fierceness is best is better than everybody else's but if you want to hit a try you got to find the guys underneath so who are we looking at underneath maybe a long shot to bomb and hit the the guys underneath they're going to be come come running catching Freedom has really really fast Clos fractions faster than Sierra Leon does and is getting better every race and if you look at catching freedoms last couple races honor Marie is right there like a length back of catching Freedom so if you like catching Freedom you got to like Anam Marie uh so I like those two and then Sierra Leon don't like the Japanese horse don't like door knock yeah uh I and I here's another one for you I think people are dismissing stronghold strongholds gritty and while he hasn't raced against much stronghold is kind of gritty and always like onew in all your races that's that's the thing about stronghold is normally the there's there's a ton of West Coast height because it's a bafford or a Doug O'Neal and I feel like because we don't have those same connections then we're just like oh it's just it's the West Coast they run five horse Fields he was in the Sunland Derby that doesn't matter but like when you keep hitting the board I don't I don't no and his time his time is good uh the final fractions theory has a subset of nine horses uh by the way Sierra Leon's not one of them which I thought I thought that was interesting so yeah I mean yeah they're short fields and by the way you bring up the West Coast isn't it weird not having baord here yeah but I'm I'm I hate Bob bford I'm I'm anti- Bob bford like I I I love to hate batford and it's most it's most why do you hate him so bad because he runs his horses in five horse Fields I'm supposed to respect that s Anita is garbage he's won six deries I know and you know what I do like I like he's a great bad guy so I because he's the bad guy I want to and it's also because authentic was shouldn't have won that like that wasn't a good horse how did that horse win the Derby I have no idea and that's the part that annoys me is there's some years where he wins where I don't think he has that great of horses and he still wins yeah but there been so many times where he lost you know like Triple Crowns where he should never have Lo that dude is that okay think about real quiet Victory Silver Charm see and that's what I liked Bob atford he was the young spunky guy and then over time slowly just devolve but here's part of it too though you're right it is weird because I like like I like having to cheer against him and I like having to kind of be the one who's like oh that that horse isn't any good when his horses are usually pretty damn good so yeah and I I don't know I was never a bob bafford fan early on but I really grew to like him because he he was really honest about like bad beats you know and when he had a good horse and when he didn't he was really funny talking about mind that bird the year he lost Pioneer of the N lost to mind that verd I I I I miss it man I to put it to you this way that is the most expensive tube of skin rash cream that has ever been purchased in the world right think about the cost to him and others of a skin rash cream one thing that I don't miss though is that we don't like that's going to be mentioned I'm sure by the NBC Sports crew on Derby day but I'm so glad we don't have all the scratch talk and the heesa and the cuz I mean how much how much did they really change you know like I just I I feel like horse racing you go through these spurts okay they changed in one big way and it's a big deal this this week if you talk to these guys you realize there's a team they brought in 15 more vets from khrc to overlook these horses in addition to Churchill's vets and the other vets so like the trainers are all worried that there're someone's going to scratch their horse like they scratched Forte last year at the last second someone's going to be this teams of people around your horse 24/7 are going to go well he's walking kind of funny today you know so I anyway in terms of safety that's immeasurably picked up that's good but I do worry like you said I I worry for the horsemen right because you build so much towards this and it could just all fall apart at one moment but it right now though we're get great weather on on Deck there should be some great races have you looked at any of the undercards cuz the under I love the undercards that's that doesn't get valued and talked about enough on Oaks and Derby Day have you have you started not I have not I've been so heavily into Oaks and Derby especially Derby because of all the hours we have to fill talking about that I but I I always love usually in the undercards have you looked so you've looked at them usually in the undercards are filled with the horses I bet last year that didn't win exactly okay okay tap it tce running for the first time since Derby last year zoos won on Derby today he'll be running this year um you do put in a lot of hours Oaks and Derby you're going to put a lot of hours in this year so that's work but what is the fun part about being out here well the fun part's right now I dragged my buttt out of bed and came down and and got to see him in the morning and that changed your perspective and uh the fun part for me used to be when I'm finally done and and people are like you must love to stay at the track and go up to the suits when you're finally off the air at 2:30 and I go no I say I go home I'm so sick of it by then and watch NBC's fantastic coverage but now I have to stay and do the post show too so my favorite part is just watching it all unfold I like I like to be done with it oh Ed horse is there one back here and went back to the barns so that's not good that's never good back to the barns maybe if he runs by us you can rangle him Nick I you know what I I'm I'm I am a rodeo clown by trade so um wow this has been an eventful conversation with John so basically what that means is that's a sign that everything I've said is incorrect and needs to be nullified it's always it's it's never a dull moment here at Churchill down so I'm doing a I'm doing a uh a fierceness wheel over the top of like catching Freedom honor Marie Sierra Leon and then I'm going to flip it and do a wheel of Sierra Leone over the same horses I think adjust a touch might be moving up too sprinkle at a nice price yeah Justus a tou got potential to move forward little sprinkles we got a go sprinkles here you can win big on Kentucky Derby Saturday John B ladies and gentlemen you can bet the Run for the roses with na bet score big on the Kentucky Derby with a double dose of rewards sign up today for a $25 Free Bet and $200 deposit bonus with promo code K sr25 join now and claim your $25 Free Bet and $200 deposit bonus at nairab bets.com kr2 and here today to help us win some of those bets is a name you might have remembered from his time with the weville Cardinals it's a great cross over here cats and cards were coming together for the best weekend in horse racing it's David levich David I appreciate you joining me and I I hope Kentucky fans don't hold to hold it too much against you your time at you UF yeah no they shouldn't U my time at UFO was it was great we only beat Kentucky one time so they shouldn't be too upset at me hey and you know you you still got plenty of Hardware behind you to celebrate your career but life after basketball you've been you've been hitting the paddock hard you're known as The Paddock Prince you're giving out tips all the time so I thought there's no better person to ask than somebody who's grinding the programs at Churchill Downs every single day not just for Derby day but all year round and I'm curious when you're cuz like I'm I'm I'm not a regular per se I mean I am but I'm not but is there is there anything about Churchill Down specifically uh when you're looking at the races maybe a trend or something like that that you might pay closer attention to than uh maybe say like a day at keanland or if you're betting the Belmont Stakes day or something like that um Churchill Downs usually is a fair place um trackwise if it rains it can get kind of rail good um if you go back and look at a lot of the Derby winners mind that bird always dreaming um um there was horses that didn't win that came up the rail that if it rains which I don't know if it's supposed to there's a little projection for rain I don't really The Churchill for the most part can be a very fair track for um on the main track and the turf the turf can be a little quirky ever since they redid it a couple years ago it's got a little goofy at times um created a lot of long shots or you know horses that win that never come back to run that same kind of race again but you know overall it's usually a fair RAC track I think speed's good on dirt always I think you always want to be forward on dirt because you're not getting mud kicked in your face so I think when you're looking at the races this weekend I think you want to you know handicap like the track is going to be fair and if it rains maybe look for some horses that are gonna be even more towards a leader on the rail okay that's I I like that I'm we're obviously gonna spend a lot of time talking Derby.
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but I want to start with the Oaks because just looking at the the past performances like there's there's a lot of front running quality speed horses in here does that maybe lend itself to a closer if that if that speed gets gets out of hand or or do you think they're the horses up front are good enough to to take it to the wire yeah the Oaks is a very interesting race this year usually when you come to the Oaks there's one or two Phillies that really stand out there's like five or six Phillies in this race that um I mean on their best day they could all be right there it's not really to where the Derby which we'll talk about has one horse that really stands out the oakome you have Thor ped you have way and me you have Les's Road Jeffs FYI um there's a lot of Phillies in there I'm forgetting one because there's so many good ones a tarfa the I think Tara the favorite is going to be the favorite for Brad Cox but I think this year's race is really interesting because well one just FY won the Breeders Cup she has speed but she Drew all the way out in post 13 she ran a good race in the ason off the layoff um that was her first time since the Breeders Cup so she's coming in second Off the Bench the horse that beat her Leslie's Rose is one more out 14 all the way to the outside so it kind of creates a little bit of a handicapping puzzle to figure out what kind of these good horses um you know the ones that are supposed to take all the money what kind of trips going to play out for them I do see the pace being kind of hot so that kind of lends me to a horse like Les rose with torpeda Anna but we'll see what happens but I think this year's Oaks I mean it's got to be as good as an Oaks as I can remember as of late yeah the one that had gine and swiss Scot ever and she dares the devil that was the co year I think wasn't it wasn't that the co yeah yeah that was that was my biggest hit ever was she dares the devil brought home the pick five for me so it was almost like the the gambling gods were saying you can't be there but we're going to throw you a bone here do do you have uh do you which which one of those is your your favorite Oaks horse of the bunch do you have one because I know that's that that it's tough to narrow down are you talking you're talking about this year right correct correct um I think Leslie's Rose is the horse to beat her post is not good but if you look at the Oaks last year pretty mischievous one from post 14 so it's obviously can be done it's just she does have the best rider in the country Mo say and I ride Ortiz so he's going to have to work out a trip you know if you forc me to make a pick at the moment I think I would take her just based on her last race was very good and she's had four races and three out of her four races been good the race she lost she kind of got stuck behind a slow pace so I think she's probably the best horse I know Kenny M Pete is very high on his horse torpeda Anna she also has a better post than most of her main Rivals she has post five so she's going to be able to get to the rail kind of make that one closing run so right now that's probably where I lean I think just FYI is the wild card in the race she's running second Off the Bench ran a huge race in the Ashen for not having runs since running in November so I think she's probably the wild card in here if she comes back with her best effort she's gonna be right there too but I'd probably lean Leslie's rose right now okay okay and if you want we're not gonna make David give up all of his tips but where can they find all of your picks this weekend I know you've you've got tip sheets for every single day uh that they're racing at Churchill Downs yeah you just go to horse racing Nation go to P prints if you go under expert picks um you'll see my I'm the first person listed just under um Paddock prints you just click on there I have Churchill Downs obviously all week but like you said I I do all year round with horse racing um I already posted my Oak sheet don't think I'll make any changes unless the weather really plays a factor so if you go on horse racing nation.com under expert pic you'll find me there I'm I'm a big fan whenever that's uh all right I don't have enough time to look at the program let's let's see what levage has got cooked up for us uh on Derby Day I mean like there there's so many stakes races so many to play and I feel like I've got a good read on some of them but I'm just struggling to get a good read on the Derby because fierceness at his best is clearly the best but uh is is he going to be the horse we saw at the Florida Derby is he going to be the the horse we saw at the holy pool I think if you looked at this race and people always say you're supposed to handicap the Derby like it's a race on a Thursday and I think that is a good um logic to have because if you took this race at face value and it was just a regular race on a Thursday he is 100% the horse to beat he has the best figures whatever figure whatever you use buyers Rags time form whatever you use he's by far the best horse now he is a little Corky like you said he I don't think it's that he doesn't show up I just think the break is what matters to him he doesn't need the lead but the two races he ran bad he stumbled in the champagne didn't recover and then in the Holy Bull he just kind of got slammed m and he just doesn't really get a good Rhythm but he doesn't need the lead in the Breeders Cup he raided so he can sit all forces I just think it really depends if he can break or not if he can break well and thank God he's at a post 17 for other people that are obsessed with that weird um that weird irrelevant stat that post 17 has never won before um now he's in post 16 technically with the 17 saddle cloth so I think it's 100% his race to lose I don't even his like I mean even his not best race would still probably win this race that's how much better his two races are in the Breeders Cup and the Florida Derby are then these horses but he is a little he is a little kind of you're going to know about probably 100 yards into the race if he's gonna win or have a real chance run you're you're not it's not gonna be like one of those things where he broke okay he's gonna make up ground we'll see it's like you're gonna know 100 yards in well and I there there's part of me too that wondered is there a scenario where um you know where maybe dooro does break clean and sets the flies out front is the White Rabbit.
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And I mean there's always a hot Pace in the derby but I do wonder if you know maybe it's door KN maybe it's track fandm that gets out ahead of him what what closer do you because there there are some they're really good closers in this race is there one in particular that stands out to you as as the best to potentially come in and and take advantage of that extra eighth of them M um I'm looking at the fairgrounds Louisiana Derby I like those two horses honor Marine catching freedom I know everybody loves sier Leon and I get it he's a really talented horse but he is going to be so far back and he's in post two he is going to have to I mean he's gonna he's also a horse I don't know if you remember last year tapet TR a horse that like had to get in the clear to make his run and it took him a while to get going this horse is very similar I think he might be a little more talented than him but I don't know I don't trust a horse like Sierra Leon in the derby because he's gonna have to get a pace collapse and he's gonna have to get in the clear he's gonna have to make a wide run he's going to have to pass at least 15 or 16 horses probably tiring in front of him so he's a horse that I get can win but for the for the closers I'm leaning towards the two horses out of the Louisiana Derby I think honor Marie is GNA run a huge race he's got to win over the track he's by Arrow gate so he's not G have any issues with the distance and then catching freedom I think is the um he'll probably be the third probably the fourth choice behind the Japanese horse who I don't really like so I think closer wise I think catching freedom and honor Maria the two horses I'm going to use underneath um in my Exotics and I think Jus a touch is the wild card in this race he's only run three times but he's he ran very well in the Bluegrass he made the first move into a hot pace so I'm little interested in him as well is is that is just a touch your favorite uh sort of long shot to play underneath um yeah because I I just think Derby I like playing horses that are forward I know the pace has been absolutely blistering the last couple years I don't I don't really see that happening this year I know door knock might go out there but I mean I just don't see it I don't see a Japanese horse that year that's going to go out there and make him go 45 and Kings Barnes last year was absolutely flying I just don't I don't see a horse that is the derby so crazy things can happen horses get amped up but I don't see a pace scenario to where Just a Touch doesn't get that perfect stalking trip in like third or fourth right near the lead and he um makes that first move turning for home and if a horse like fierceness backs up he could be the one that gets first call on the um leaders well I we appreciate the Insight here at ksr even if you are a card uh Before I Let You Go David levich the The Paddock prce over at horse racing Nations where you can find all of his tip sheets year round uh at Churchill Downs and other tracks elsewhere uh is there any the undercard I think I counted eight Stakes race on Saturday and seven on Friday is there any is there any one horse in a race that really jumps out to you yes race six and seven on Derby Day um I'm gonna play a big double um the outside horse vava is irat Ortiz and sharid Deo I think it's the 10 horse and the um is it the human dis staff or whatever that race is Derby City dis staff yeah I had that one written down too yeah yeah I like her and then I'm playing Chad Brown's Euro Import in race seven um Copus Frankie did tor's riding it's a first time us horse for jmont um I think it's the seven maybe 10 seven seven like that but yeah I'm going to play those are my two plays on Derby not counting the der's back to back so you know after race seven I know Derby's a long day I'll know how I'll know how my R is going after about race s love it well hopefully we're all cashing tickets winning big on Kentucky Derby Saturday good luck